Equilibrium

Effects of Mass Deportation on U.S.-Born Workers

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By Justin Yan | ShoQs 2026

Effects of Mass Deportation on U.S.-Born Workers

Have you ever wondered what would happen if millions of undocumented immigrants were removed from the country today? At first glance, it seems like it would free up jobs and increase the wages of U.S.-born workers. However, research suggests otherwise. 

From 2008 to 2014, the U.S. implemented a policy known as Secure Communities, a data-sharing program that coordinates federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies to check the immigration status of individuals arrested by local police. Because it was a federally mandated program, local and state agencies could not opt out of the program. However, due to resource and technological constraints, full nationwide coverage was not achieved until 2013. Over this period, around 450,000 people were deported. 

Have you ever wondered what would happen if millions of undocumented immigrants were removed from the country today? At first glance, it seems like it would free up jobs and increase the wages of U.S.-born workers. However, research suggests otherwise. From 2008 to 2014, the U.S. implemented a policy known as Secure Communities, a data-sharing program that coordinates federal, state, and local law enforcement agencies to check the immigration status of individuals arrested by local police. Because it was a federally mandated program, local and state agencies could not opt out of the program. However, due to resource and technological constraints, full nationwide coverage was not achieved until 2013. Over this period, around 450,000 people were deported. If the initial assumption is true, then U.S.-born workers should have benefited from these actions. However, U.S.-born workers actually lost ground in terms of employment and wages after these deportations. According to East et al. (2023), Secure Communities reduced the employment share of the U.S.-born workers by 0.3 percentage points and lowered the hourly wages of the U.S.-born workers by 0.6%. They found no evidence that increased immigration enforcement helped them in either category. But how can this be? How come removing the “competition” led to the opposite results most expected? East et al. (2023) offer two explanations for this phenomenon. The first is that U.S.-born workers and undocumented immigrants aren’t perfect substitutes. Due to their lower wages compared to U.S.-born workers, removing undocumented immigrants ends up increasing labor costs for firms. This, in turn, leads to lower hiring rates and fewer jobs created by firms. The second is that deportations shrink the number of local consumers in an economy. Undocumented immigrants, just like U.S.-born workers, purchase goods and services. When they are removed, demand in local economies falls, especially in industries dependent on local customers. In essence, fewer customers mean fewer jobs. Heading back to the modern day, and we have a very similar situation. On his first day in office of his second term, President Trump issued a series of executive orders reforming U.S. immigration policy in an attempt to clamp down on undocumented immigrants living in the country. According to the BBC, his plan includes: mass deportations, more troops at the border, suspending migrant entry, eliminating the CBP One app, and expanding ICE powers. In other words, this is a more expansive version of Secure Communities. One noticeable difference between Trump’s proposals and Secure Communities is the scale of deportations. By its end, Secure Communities only ever managed to remove around 450,000 undocumented immigrants. It's a large number, but it pales in comparison to the millions President Trump is trying to deport. The American Immigration Council estimates that under mass deportation, the U.S. could lose 1.5 million undocumented workers in the construction workforce alone, an industry exceptionally dependent on local demand. If past evidence is any guide, a large-scale deportation effort is unlikely to deliver benefits for U.S.-born workers. Instead, it risks lowering employment and the wages of U.S.-born workers.

If the initial assumption is true, then U.S.-born workers should have benefited from these actions. However, U.S.-born workers actually lost ground in terms of employment and wages after these deportations. According to East et al. (2023), Secure Communities reduced the employment share of the U.S.-born workers by 0.3 percentage points and lowered the hourly wages of the U.S.-born workers by 0.6%. They found no evidence that increased immigration enforcement helped them in either category. 

But how can this be? How come removing the “competition” led to the opposite results most expected? East et al. (2023) offer two explanations for this phenomenon. 

The first is that U.S.-born workers and undocumented immigrants aren’t perfect substitutes. Due to their lower wages compared to U.S.-born workers, removing undocumented immigrants ends up increasing labor costs for firms. This, in turn, leads to lower hiring rates and fewer jobs created by firms. 

The second is that deportations shrink the number of local consumers in an economy. Undocumented immigrants, just like U.S.-born workers, purchase goods and services. When they are removed, demand in local economies falls, especially in industries dependent on local customers. In essence, fewer customers mean fewer jobs. 

Heading back to the modern day, and we have a very similar situation. On his first day in office of his second term, President Trump issued a series of executive orders reforming U.S. immigration policy in an attempt to clamp down on undocumented immigrants living in the country. According to the BBC, his plan includes: mass deportations, more troops at the border, suspending migrant entry, eliminating the CBP One app, and expanding ICE powers. In other words, this is a more expansive version of Secure Communities. 

One noticeable difference between Trump’s proposals and Secure Communities is the scale of deportations. By its end, Secure Communities only ever managed to remove around 450,000 undocumented immigrants. It’s a large number, but it pales in comparison to the millions President Trump is trying to deport. The American Immigration Council estimates that under mass deportation, the U.S. could lose 1.5 million undocumented workers in the construction workforce alone, an industry exceptionally dependent on local demand. 

If past evidence is any guide, a large-scale deportation effort is unlikely to deliver benefits for U.S.-born workers. Instead, it risks lowering employment and the wages of U.S.-born workers.

Sources

Yousif, Nadine. “Six Big Immigration Changes under Trump – and Their Impact so Far.” BBC News, BBC, 27 Jan. 2025, www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn2p8x2eyo.

Cohn, D’Vera. “How U.S. Immigration Laws and Rules Have Changed through History.” Pew Research Center, Pew Research Center, 30 Sept. 2015, www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2015/09/30/how-u-s-immigration-laws-and-rules-have -changed-through-history/.

East, Chloe N., et al. “The labor market effects of immigration enforcement.” Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 41, no. 4, 2 Oct. 2023, pp. 957–996, https://doi.org/10.1086/721152.

“Mass Deportation.” American Immigration Council, 6 June 2025, www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/report/mass-deportation/#:~:text=Nationally%2C% 20mass%20deportation,transportation%20and%20warehousing.